THB will decline on BoT rate cuts

Our view on Thailand is supported by nearly all of the macro indicators we monitor. The country has stagnant growth for the region at 2.0-2.5% with negative YoY CPI. The 30% decrease in rubber and rice prices has caused a significant decrease in farm income. In addition, Thailand is experiencing reduced export competitiveness due its strong currency, and uncertainty is building around next year’s election. We feel the Bank of Thailand is far behind the curve in its monetary policy stance, and should be aggressively cutting rates and even intervening to weaken its currency to make the country more competitive. Sell side analysts are also behind the curve and were forecasting no change to rates in the beginning of 2015, while we anticipated 50-75 bps of rate cuts in 2015.


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