NZD will decline on dovish RBNZ comments

We originally explored an NZD position in July 2014 ahead of the RBNZ meeting on July 23rd. Our short thesis was driven by the 41% decrease in dairy prices, low inflation, moderating growth, the NZD being a widely held trend following and carry position, and the forward guidance of the RBNZ. We became less focused on the NZD after the currency moved below 0.73 in January 2015. The NZD has become a key area of focus for our team ahead of the April 29th RBNZ meeting. We expect the RBNZ will lay the groundwork for a rate cut in Q2 or Q3 due to negative inflation, dairy prices retreating to the 2014 low, and the appreciation of the trade weighted NZD Index.

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